RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED TO COMMODITY SPECULATION*

The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation

The price of crude oil in the U.S. never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By 2006 it reached $70, and in July 2008 it peaked at $145. By late 2008 it had plummeted to about $30 before increasing to $110 in 2011. Are speculators at least partly to blame for these sharp price changes? We clarify the effects of speculators on commodity prices. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be ...

A (S,s) Model of Commodity Price Speculation

Bounding analysis applied to lung cancer risk

For cancers with more than one risk factor, the sum of estimated numbers of cancers attributed to the individual factors may exceed the total number of cases observed. In this study we bound the fraction of lung cancer occurrences not attributed to specific well-studied causes, in order to keep estimates of the less well delimited risks consistent with those of known risks. Available data and e...

Risk analysis applied to food fortification.

OBJECTIVE To describe how a risk analysis can be applied to food fortification, with emphasis on voluntary fortification and intake levels that might exceed usual dietary levels. DESIGN Use of the risk analysis model as a frame to classify nutrients according to the risk of exceeding upper safe intake levels. Furthermore, to apply the model when discussing possible consequences of liberal for...

Technical Analysis in Commodity Markets: Risk, Returns, and Value

Although there is little academic research that supports the usefulness of technical analysis, its use remains widespread in commodity markets. Much prior research into technical analysis suffered from data-snooping biases. Using genetic programming, ex ante optimal technical trading strategies are identified. Because they are mechanically generated from simple arithmetic operators, they are fr...